OCTOBER 27, 2024 RESEARCH UPDATE

Binary Z score calculation method: If the trial was correct in predicting the binary (yes, no) outcome of it's respective future event (chance expectation is exactly 50%), then it is given a score of "1", if the trial was incorrect, it is given a score of "-1". The Z score calculation = sum(scores)/sqrt(count(scores).

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Discussion:​ Allthough the overall trial Z score at 2.45 is statistically significant, with over 70,000 trials, the resulting win rate is quite small at only 50.4%. It is difficult to make any useful predictions with a 50.4% win rate. However, we are continuing to experiment with using filters and consensus to leverage that low winning percentage to a higher value which would be more useful.