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Mission Blindfold Performance Update

NO FEEDBACK GROUP PERFORMANCE


When we started the Mission Blindfold project in Feb, 2024, the intended z score (blue line on plot above) was considerably higher, and statistically significant compared to the displacement z score (purple line on the plot above), so we assumed that viewing your feedback contributed to higher displacement scores vs. intended scores. As a reminder, your intended score is the score you achieve for matching your RV transcript to the correct target for each trial, whereas your displacement score is the score you achieve for matching your RV transcript to all of the OTHER 9 correct targets in the prediction. A high displacement score means you might get a high average score if you matched perceptions from RV transcript for trial 2 to the correct target for trial 8, for example.


Since then, based on a total of 13,178 trials, the intended z score has steadily fallen while the displacement z score has steadily increased which basically disproves the theory that not viewing feedback decreases displacement (increases intended).


Note that as of today, the total z score for a 50-50 mix of both intended and displacement is not significant for the no feedback group at z=.63 with the intended z score also not significant at z=.47 and displacement score slightly below significance at z=1.49



FEEDBACK GROUP PERFORMANCE


Performance for 20,700 trials in the remaining group who DID view feedback is significant for displacement at z=1.85, not significant for a 50-50 combination of intended and displacement at z=1.18 with a similar poor intended z score of z=.62.


SUMMARY

To summarize, I do not think that removing feedback improved intended scores at all, and overall, it appears that not seeing feedback and not seeing any performance stats probably resulted in our particpants getting bored which is reflected in the poor, and insignificant z scores for all 3 categories: intended, displacement and combination.


Going forward, we have now REMOVED the Blindfold protocol for the Team Time Machine Pro group to see if viewing feedback will start to improve the performance.


OVERALL PERFORMANCE


Overall, we have collected 34,107 trials now and the overall (includes no feedback groups and feedback groups) z score for a combination of intended and displacement is nearly significant at z=1.4 with a very significant z=2.4 for displacement.


It appears that there is more predictive power in the displacement metric than intended, or even when we equally combine intended + displacement which is very interesting.



OVERALL PERFORMANCE FOR PROPORTIONALLY WEIGHTED INTEND + DISPLACE

If I change the combination percentages to PROPORTIONALLY weight intended and displacement (90% displacement for 9/10 trials + 10% intended for 1/10 trials), then the combination z score is very high at z=2.7

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