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Demonetizing Team Time-Machine Pro :-(

Sadly, at the end of the day, Friday, May 10th we are stopping all incentive payments to Team Time Machine Pro members. Sorry guys! Read on for an explanation.


Going forward for Team Time Machine Pro members:


Firstly, the TTM Pro division win rate has fallen below our minimum required to monetize (to profitably trade), and secondly, we have no evidence that past individual high performance equals future individual high performance (read on for details). Therefore, we have made the decision to stop the financial incentive payments for all TTM Pro members, and to close the Team Time-Machine Pro division. As an ex-TTM Pro member, you can continue to contribute predictions as an unpaid research volunteer, and we super appreciate it if you want to continue with us, but unfortunately we cannot financially compensate you anymore.


Rest assured, payment will be processed for your correct predictions to this point. We will also continue to process payment for correct predictions in your current 5 prediction cycle. For example, if your current milestone is for Predictions #21-40, and you are on Prediction #31, we will process your payment for predictions #21-25, #26-30, & #31-35 (upon completion). After payment has been processed up to #35, we will no longer pay for correct predictions moving forward. If you have any questions or concerns regarding payment, please send an email to paul@time-machine.com


The Fall-Off Effect.


If you recall, back in October 2023 we thought it would be interesting to run a 'side experiment' where our time-travelers (participants) were not allowed to see any form of feedback (were not allowed to look at the photos), and did not receive any form of personal performance feedback. Initially, results looked very positive, and in fact were better than our control group - which would have been all other time-travelers who were seeing feedback and personal performance statistics which is all a part of our regular protocol.


However, we noticed that performance was starting to fall-off (known as "fall-off effect") by early April, as the percentage hit rate for the BlindFold group had fallen to around 50% chance level.


To remedy that, we moved all Mission BlindFold time-travelers over to Team Time Machine Pro because it was thought that not seeing feedback as a BlindFold viewer was causing this drop-off in performance. We hoped that TTM pro which offered a financial incentive for correct predictions, reinstituted feedback and showed personal performance statistics might make it interesting for the participants once again, and we hoped that would result in an improvement in performance.


Unfortunately, this was not to be. Since we started the TTM Pro division in early April, we have amassed an impressive 4123 trials and the win rate has fallen-off to below 50%


The original Mission Blindfold division % win rate 13,289 trials = 50.1%

Oct 3, 2023 to April 2, 2023


Team Time-Machine Pro division % win rate 4123 trials = 49.99%

April 2, 2024 to May 10, 2024


So, it appears that we have statistically significant evidence of this "fall-off" effect, so continuing to explore this approach does not make sense. However, there is another reason why continuing on with "pros" does not make sense at this time:


Is the whole concept of a "talented" (pro) remote viewer just an illusion?


Maybe. It is generally thought within the community of researchers, and remote viewing practitioners that there are individuals who have demonstrated special skills or talent in the psychic realm, and if so, should continue to demonstrate above average performance in future tests.


This was the basic idea behind the "Team Time-Machine Pro" division: a QUALIFIED group of highly talented time travelers who should theoretically outperform in future predictions. We offered TTM pro memberships to all of our time travelers who could achieve a z score of > .7 after 100 trials.


If past performance is indicative of future performance, then it should be relatively easy to test, by asking this question: Does a high performing participant after their first 100 trials outperform an average participant after their first 100 trials? The answer is the opposite of what you would think. According to my study, a participant who achieved a z score of 1.5 after their first 100 trials, went on to achieve a z score of -1.1 for all subsequent trials, whereas a participant who achieved a poor z score of -1.5 after their first 100 trials went on to score a .17 (slightly above chance, but not significant). Therefore, from my data, there does not seem to be such a thing as "talent".


How are we doing otherwise?


Since Oct, 2024, we have also been running a 3rd division called "Special" which does see feedback, and differs in some important ways from TTM pro participants. Performance for this "Special" group has continued to IMPROVE over time resulting in close to 52% win rate which is an outstanding z score of 3 standard deviations from chance expectation. I'm not quite ready to discuss what makes this special group so special, or how we filter their trials and predictions - basically the secret sauce - but I wanted to mention it just so you know we are still making very good progress toward an actual time-traveling application (risking capital on predictions) and still demonstrating over-all statistical significance.


Special division % win rate 7177 trials = 51.7% (z = 3)

Oct 3, 2023 to May 10, 2024


In fact, over-all, taking every single trial ever conducted and saved into our database since the inception of this project in Oct of 2023, we are still showing a statistically significant effect size of z = 2.39. Since our goal here is to APPLY this time-traveling edge to predicting a financial market, we have transaction costs that we need to overcome which is why the percentage win rate has to be above 51% even though results are statistically significant.


Every single trial in our database 39,688 trials z = 2.39

Oct 3, 2023 to May 10, 2024


Here is a definition of "Fall-off" effect


The "fall-off" effect in parapsychological research typically refers to a phenomenon observed in experiments involving psychic abilities or extrasensory perception (ESP), such as telepathy, clairvoyance, or precognition. In these studies, the "fall-off" effect describes a decline in performance or accuracy over time among participants.

Key points about the fall-off effect include:


1. Duration of Experiment: Researchers have observed that participants in ESP experiments might start with relatively high accuracy or success rates, which decrease over the duration of the experiment. This trend can be seen in both individual sessions and over the course of repeated sessions.


2. Possible Causes: There are several theories as to why the fall-off effect occurs:


- Mental Fatigue: Continuous focus on tasks that are mentally demanding can lead to fatigue, which may decrease the participant's performance.


- Decreased Motivation: The novelty of the task may wear off for participants, reducing their motivation and thus their performance.


- Adaptation: Participants may adapt or habituate to the experimental conditions, which might impact their performance negatively over time.


3. Methodological Considerations: The fall-off effect is significant for researchers designing parapsychological studies as it can influence the outcomes and interpretations of ESP phenomena. Ensuring that experiments are designed to minimize fatigue, maintain motivation, and account for adaptation is important for obtaining reliable results.


Understanding this effect is crucial for interpreting data in parapsychological research, as it highlights the challenges in demonstrating consistent psychic phenomena under controlled conditions.


Going forward for Team Time Machine Pro members:


Since we want to continue to add data to our database which is still amassing statistical significance, it is still worth collecting trials from EVERYONE including ex-TTM Pro division time-travelers, so please do consider continuing submitting new predictions, possibly as part of your daily meditation practice as an unpaid "research volunteer". We will continue to offer you unrestricted use of the Time-Machine.com app, including feedback of trial photos and of course your complete performance charts as before. Another perc we can offer you to continue on, is email and blog post access to all of our future performance updates. This field of research is exciting and we are learning so much thanks in part to you! Please stay involved and stay in touch!

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Maybe this is a more widespread experience of participants:

First, if the trend of reduced ARV success (% correct) predictions is pervasive, then following may be an explanation based on my analysis.

Personally, I am not surprised that there is reduced ARV success for the participants in the ARV trials and predictions after a month and longer. I would say that the intensity/focus I had during the initial trials was about a factor of 3 or 4 higher than that of my current trials. I'm not sure if I'd call it mental fatigue but more like a combination of reduced focus and intensity of mental energy applied to completing each trial and exploring my ability to connect with something akin…

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