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Defying The Odds

Updated: Mar 2



Typically, we group predictions for our time travelers by 5, because we like to encourage you to complete 5 predictions per week, once a day. We recently decided to take a look at our win rate out of 5 predictions compared to what you could expect by chance, and the results are really interesting.


Since it is your goal, as a qualified, authorized, certified, licensed, approved, sanctioned, confirmed, commissioned and official Time-Machine time travelers, to obtain as many hits as possible out of 5 predictions in a week, the expectation is that you would be outperforming chance expectation which is only 3.2% of the time. That means, that if you flipped 5 coins, you would guess 5 of the flips correct, only 3.2 times for every 100 coin flips.


It is very rare that you would guess all 5 coin flips correct (or predict all 5 future event outcomes correct in our case). However, you guys are NAILING 5 out of 5 predictions more than 10% of the time which is over THREE times more often than chance would permit! The odds against chance of a single 5/5 correct prediction is 31 to 1. THIS IS VERY significant!!


What is also interesting is your 4/5 hit rate which is 23% compared to chance which is 15.6%. Your 1/2, 2/5 and 3/5 hit rates are lower than chance, which is to be expected because the additional 4/5 and 5/5 wins have to come from somewhere (if you add up the win rate for each column, it has to equal 100%, so if you are over achieving with the 4/5 and 5/5, you have to be underachieving for the others).


Every step of the way, we are defying the laws of physics and doing the impossible. Be proud of what you are accomplishing! This is really incredible.


Happy time traveling y'all!

Greg

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